Severe weather pattern returns to North Texas, bringing heavy rainfall
NORTH TEXAS – I'm currently monitoring two areas on radar. As a larger system approaches from the west, I anticipate increased activity in our western DMA.
TONIGHT: Short-term/high-resolution models are not in great agreement for the next 72 hours. The HRRR shows some isolated convection developing late this evening ahead of the impulse moving in from the west. This area could have limited instability even after sundown, supporting some decent updrafts. However, the coverage on this seems overestimated to me. We'll see.
SUNDAY: The HRRR for tomorrow morning indicates a heavier rain threat, with possible flash flooding. Current trends suggest this will remain north of Highway 380 in Denton and Collin counties.
Tomorrow afternoon is expected to be busier than today. Short-term convective models indicate a broken line approaching the metroplex, with isolated cells potentially producing damaging winds and large hail.
MONDAY: Finally, the busiest and last day of active weather for a little while. Trends indicate a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) could form ahead of the cold front early to midday Monday and move through the metro area between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Note, this image reflects this model's opinion; a few models have it moving through later in the afternoon. A QLCS will typically produce severe winds, heavy rainfall, and brief, spin-up tornadoes. I would not be surprised to see at least a few tornado warnings in this.
