July was hottest on record, NOAA says, with 2024 likely to be warmest year to date
Last month was the warmest July on record for the last 175 years, experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
This marks the 14 consecutive month of record-breaking global warm temperatures, said Karin Gleason, monitoring section chief for NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
NOAA's findings differed very slightly from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, another resource for seasonal forecasts, which ranked July 2024 as the second hottest July on record, behind July 2023.
"NOAA data set the record warm July by three hundredths of a degree Celsius," said Gleason. "It's essentially very close to a virtual tie [to July 2023] by all intents and purposes."
Parts of the western and eastern U.S. saw above-average or record warm temperatures, NOAA said, with New Hampshire and California the most above average.
All signs point to 2024 becoming a year for the record books: according to NOAA's statistical analysis, there is a 77% chance that it will be the warmest year, and nearly a 100% chance that it will be one of the top five.
High temps and drought conditions fuel wildfires
As temperatures peaked last month, drought conditions also intensified across parts of the United States, including the Ohio Valley, the central and southern plains, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Hawaiian Islands.
Approximately 22% of the United States is currently in drought, NOAA data indicates, up from 3.5% from early July.
In the western U.S., lack of moisture in the air and below average precipitation contributed to drought conditions, said Andy Hoell, research meteorologist at the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.
These conditions laid the groundwork for more intense wildfires. There are currently over 80 wildfires of 100 acres or more burning across the country, the majority of which are concentrated in the West. You can track the latest in CBS News' interactive Wildfire Watch maps.
"The location of these wildland fires in the western United States closely corresponds to areas experiencing drought in which vegetation health is low," said Hoell.
California's Park Fire, the 4th biggest wildfire in the state's history, rapidly grew to over 429,000 acres since it started on July 24. Back-to-back days with temperatures above 100 degrees facilitated the spread of the blaze, Hoell said.
"Wildfire spread on those days was aided by the weather and the climate," Hoell said.
NOAA has recorded 19 separate billion-dollar disasters from January to July of this year, including the South Fork Fire, a blaze that started mid-June in the town of Ruidoso, New Mexico, and destroyed over 1,000 buildings.
La Niña on the horizon
NOAA forecasters also said Thursday there's a 66% chance that La Niña, a weather pattern characterized by cooler temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, will arrive this fall, and likely endure through the winter into next year.
The opposing climate pattern known as El Niño, associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, came to an end in June after a year-long reign, according to NOAA.
"If La Niña continues through the winter, we would expect drier than normal conditions over Southern California and the Southwest," said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
La Niña is known to weaken winds over the Atlantic Basin, which increases the likelihood of hurricane activity.
While the weather pattern could still be a ways away, forecasters say the warm surface temperatures already present in the Tropical Atlantic will make for notable hurricane activity in the coming weeks.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a strong start with Beryl, which made history as the earliest hurricane to reach Category 5 status.
Forecasters are now tracking Hurricane Ernesto, which is making its way north towards Bermuda after unleashing heavy rains and knocking out power in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
