Record October heat comes to an end, but what's next for Northern California?
Without a doubt, it has been a hot start to October. Many records have been set within the first seven days of the month with highs in the triple-digits.
Downtown Sacramento recorded its 50th day this year of hitting a high of 100 degrees or more. Most of those days happened in July with 21 days in the 100s. We have added five of those days in October alone through its first week. In an average year, the city usually gets 23 days of triple-digit heat.
Tuesday will mark the last day of excessive heat before a gradual cool down heading into the weekend, but will this be the end of triple digits?
The pattern
A persistent ridge of high pressure has remained overhead through the last week, locking in the heat from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Sierra Foothills to kick off October.
The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday, flattening out and moving to the east through the rest of the week. That will help restore an onshore flow and Delta breeze, opening the door for cooler air to move in.
An upper-level low-pressure system drops in by the end of the week, producing more cloud cover and highs below average to start the weekend.
Some models show a few showers moving into the Northern Sacramento Valley, yet no model has kept this pattern consistent. It will be something we watch over the next few days.
The gradual cooldown
From October 1, highs have ranged 10-20 degrees above average. By the end of the week, temperatures will be right on par with average, with many in the low 80s by Friday.
On Wednesday, many spots in the Sacramento Valley will struggle to reach 90 degrees, yet, a few spots in the San Joaquin Valley may hit 90.
From there, we cool down even more. By Saturday, highs will reach for the upper 70s.
The long term
Models are still keeping Northern California warmer than average for the next 6-10 days, but this may change depending on any quick-passing storms that develop.
Climatologically, Sacramento will continue its cooldown through the end of the month—with an average high of 80 degrees by October 15 and an average high of 72 degrees by November 1.
We may see a few more warmer days, but fall weather looks to be right around the corner. Stay with the CBS Sacramento First Alert Weather team for the latest updates.
