How far will mortgage interest rates fall in November?

Shortly after the pandemic, the Federal Reserve repeatedly raised interest rates in response to surging inflation. This made it difficult to find affordable home loans — and virtually eliminated any interest homeowners had in mortgage refinancing, at least for those who'd borrowed during the period in which rates were in the 3% to 4% range. 

However, new inflation data from late 2024 finally showed inflation was cooling. For would-be homebuyers who'd struggled to find mortgage loans at rates below 7%, this news offered renewed hope that getting a lower-cost home loan could still be an option.

Would-be homeowners and those hoping to refinance their mortgage got their wish. Average rates dropped more than a point leading into the Fed's September meeting in anticipation of expected rate cuts. And, the Fed delivered, dropping rates by 50 basis points. Sadly, though, this didn't cause borrowing costs to decline in October. Rates actually bounced back instead.

While this frustrated potential buyers, some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall as a rate drop will increase demand and send prices surging. Still, some are waiting to see how rates will trend before they buy. So what's the best move to make?

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How far will mortgage interest rates fall in November?

For those eager for predictions, here's what experts think about the chances of declining mortgage rates in November. 

Rates could be volatile

November may bring a turbulent mortgage market, so those who are ready to become homeowners should track rates closely and seize on any opportunities to lock in when a rate drop happens.

"Mortgage rates could be volatile in the first half of November as they digest the election and the subsequent Fed meeting," says Emily Overton, capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans. "This could leave homebuyers certain days to arbitrage better rates if they're watching day over day."

Buyers hoping to lock in should pursue getting a pre-approval so they're ready to act quickly and should contact their lender as soon as rates drop. Rates can change daily and timing the market can be a challenge, but tracking rates can help you catch favorable shifts. 

Depending on the lender and loan terms, once the rate is locked in, it will be guaranteed not to change for a set time, such as 30 to 45 days. This not only provides peace of mind about mortgage costs but also makes it possible to take advantage of temporary rate cuts if you have reason to suspect borrowing costs will climb again. 

Find out the top mortgage rates you could qualify for here.

Rates will stay above 6.00%

Although there could be some movement in mortgage rates in November, experts say the chances of a big decline aren't likely — at least not yet. 

"Mortgage rates are not expected to fall below 6% in November," says J.R. George, senior vice president of Trustco Bank.  

And most other experts agree with this assessment, for multiple reasons.

"Mortgage rates tend to mirror trends seen in other longer-term rates like 10-year treasuries, which fluctuate not only based on the current policy rate, but expectations for the economy over a longer period," says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "I expect the benchmark rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage to remain in the low 6% range in November as we saw in September. While rates climbed in October on stronger economic data, I expect more moderate readings on the labor market and inflation that will help bring rates back down."

Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, also believes mortgage rates will stay stable based on economic trends. 

"Mortgage rates have bounced higher since hitting their 2024 lows in September.  If economic data continues to show that the economy is stronger than thought, then rates will continue to rise in November and not fall at all," Cohn says. 

Good economic news isn't typically a bad thing, but it could be problematic for those hoping for a chance at an affordable home loan. 

"Keep in mind, as a general rule, bad economic news makes mortgage rates go down. Good economic news makes them go up," says Aaron Gordon, a branch manager and senior mortgage loan officer at Guild Mortgage. 

"I don't believe mortgage rates will truly fall again until 2025," Gordon says. "There's too much uncertainty with the election and too many indicators that the economy is doing well. I would plan on 30-year mortgage rates in the 6.375% to 6.875% range through the end of 2024."

While this is an improvement compared with mortgage rates of 7% or higher during the pandemic, it's still not what most buyers want to hear. 

The bottom line

While it may be disappointing to discover that the Federal Reserve's upcoming November meeting isn't likely to send mortgage rates plummeting, there is some good news for would-be homebuyers and those looking to refinance. 

J.R. George believes rates will dip lower near the end of the fourth quarter of 2024m while Gordon says the next big rate cut is coming in early 2025. However, as Cohn mentioned above, strong economic news could upend these predictions. 

"Another stronger than expected jobs report or stickier than expected inflation data could keep rates closer to the mid-6% range," Hale says.

Those waiting on the sidelines for lower rates should monitor economic conditions as well as the upcoming Fed meeting on November 6 and 7th. Those factors will determine if rates are likely to go down both in November and beyond.